By David Speers
It’s a political truism that border protection is a winner for the Coalition. Since the Tampa sailed over the horizon back in 2001, carrying its cargo of Afghan asylum seekers, conservative leaders have struck a tough line and been well rewarded by the electorate. John Howard famously declared “we will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come.” Tony Abbott went for the shorter slogan, vowing to “stop the boats”. After the success of Abbott and Scott Morrison in doing just that, and Labor’s grudging embrace of boat turn-backs, it didn’t look like the issue would feature much in this campaign. Until now.
The PNG Prime Minister’s decision to shut down the Manus Island detention centre after a Supreme Court ruling found it unconstitutional clearly caught the Turnbull government off guard. Immigration Minister Peter Dutton tried to suggest the government was anticipating the court ruling and had been “planning for this since late last year”. But there’s still no evidence of a plan. The PM had to concede he couldn’t “provide a definite road map” on what the government will now do. This is a serious problem.
Howard and Abbott talked tough, but also managed to convince voters they had a solution. Turnbull is talking tough, but missing the solution. He said we shouldn’t be “misty-eyed” about the plight of the nearly 900 men now in limbo (compassion is apparently a dangerous thing). More importantly he pledged “none of the detainees there will come to Australia.” These words could come back to haunt Malcolm Turnbull.
This unequivocal position is being driven by more than just politics. The PM Is being advised that opening up any hint of hope for asylum seekers will only give people smugglers in Indonesia a sales pitch to desperate clients. Still, he needs to be careful with such guarantees.
Lawyers in PNG will begin court proceedings next week to free the detainees. If they’re successful, finding a solution will become even more urgent. PNG courts can’t force Australia to take the asylum seekers, but they can add to the pressure on both governments. Already there’s disagreement over who is ultimately responsible for the men. Dutton says PNG is responsible. PNG’s High Commissioner says “this is within Australia’s responsibility.” Neither country will want this to end up in an international court.
So what will Australia do? The immediate focus is on trying to convince PNG to change its mind, with the offer of even more financial and other support. An “open centre” approach at Manus Island (as exists in Nauru) could be a way of getting around the Supreme Court ruling that detention is unconstitutional. There are several complicating factors though. The asylum seekers in Nauru are family groups. Those in the Manus centre are all single men. Allowing 900 men free rein in the community could be a recipe for disaster, given the well documented record of violence between locals and detainees. More police and security might help and Labor has already indicated it would be putting “a lot on the table”. It too wants to see the centre remain open. PNG is in an extremely strong negotiating position if it comes to striking a new deal..
There is also the hope of finding another country to take them. Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines have all been canvassed. Talks continue with these countries, but haven’t progressed far enough. New Zealand and Canada are also options, but the prospect of ending up in such a wealthy country won’t deter those considering a boat journey to Christmas Island. That’s the ugly reality of offshore processing: the final destination has to be somewhere you really don’t want to go.
Manus Island and Nauru weren’t permanent solutions under Howard’s original Pacific Solution. Nearly half of those sent to the islands were eventually re-settled back in Australia. Nor are they permanent solutions now.
Malcolm Turnbull has a huge amount on his plate over the next week, selling a budget and launching an election campaign. But he needs to get directly involved in finding a solution to this asylum seeker impasse. If he really is to keep his word about these detainees not coming to Australia (not even Christmas Island), the PM needs to do a lot more than talking tough. He needs to pick up the phone and start using all his powers of persuasion to win over regional counterparts. Otherwise an area of traditional strength for the Coalition could become particularly messy during an election campaign.