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Finding a best friend isn't easy

David Speers
21 November 2014

By David Speers
 
When I drop my three year old at childcare most days, first order of business is finding her “best friends” for the day.  Small alliances of toddlers band together to either rummage in the sandpit, build lego towers or simply chase each other in circles. These groupings stick together and somehow there is order amongst the chaos.
 
The Senate could learn a thing or two from this childcare centre.  The so-called house of review has become a house of ridicule. The PUP Senators have split and the name calling between Clive Palmer and Jacqui Lambie is more childish than anything a three year old could muster.  Clive is undoubtedly the biggest loser, with his precious balance of power gone. The fracture is also bad news for the government.
 
No longer can the Coalition turn to Clive Palmer for a guaranteed four votes in the Senate. Suddenly it has to negotiate with every one of the crossbenchers, a collection of very different people, famously likened to the bar scene from Star Wars. In truth, some of these crossbenchers are already savvy political operators. They know what’s popular and what’s not.  They’re most unlikely to pass the outstanding budget measures worth roughly $20 billion. They’re even less likely to pass any harsher measures bowled up next year in Joe Hockey’s second budget.
 
Reality check
The splintering of the Senate was a crash down to earth for the Prime Minister after a successful week hosting world leaders.  So too was a Newspoll showing the Coalition slipping into dangerous territory.  Two of the government’s staunchest media supporters also delivered a wake-up call.  Alan Jones berated the PM on air for the China deal, while Andrew Bolt warned the Coalition was facing certain defeat unless it lifted its game.
 
None of this domestic trouble, though, should take away from the extraordinary success on trade and strategic alignment over the past week. The standout is clearly the China FTA. It is both good policy for Australia and good politics for the Abbott Government. The Prime Minister gambled by setting a seemingly impossible deadline of finalising the deal by the end of the year after a decade of negotiation. The gamble paid off. This deal comes on top of similar trade deals with Japan and South Korea, but will dwarf them in scale.  

The benefits for beef, dairy, wine and horticulture are huge. The benefits for legal, accounting, insurance, engineering, childcare and aged care service providers are potentially enormous. No one has a better deal with China and according to all the trade experts I've spoken to this week, Australia has done much better out of this than China. Beijing is using this deal to send a message to the world that it's ready to open up more and build a much deeper relationship with a country it sees as an "influential player" in the region.  It’s a  relationship that goes beyond a supply and demand equation.

A new game

President Xi Jinping used his historic address to the Australian parliament to acknowledge concerns about China's rapid growth.  In a sign of self-awareness, he spoke of China being "the big guy in the crowd" and others being worried "the big guy may push them around, stand in their way or even take their place".  Only the US is worried about China taking its place, so this was a message not just to his immediate audience.

President Xi spoke of China being "ravaged by turmoil and war for more than a century" and gave an assurance "the Chinese people will never subject any country or nation to the same ordeal".  He rightly pointed out our two countries "are not burdened by historical problems between us" and called for "enhanced strategic dialogue".  The Chinese leader was openly encouraging Australia to be more independent in its foreign policy stance.

This message was warmly received by Tony Abbott, just two days after he was burnt, ironically, by the leader of our closest ally.  Even strong supporters of Barack Obama's position on climate change privately acknowledge it was highly unusual diplomacy to upstage and knowingly embarrass the Prime Minister during Australia's big moment on the world stage.

The Chinese leader's message of peace and stability contrasted with Obama's deep concern about the "genuine dangers", "instability" and risk of "confrontation" in the region.  The US President wasn't alone in using his visit to stir fear.  British Prime Minister David Cameron warned of "authoritarian capitalism" threatening our freedoms, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi admitted that he "worries about access and security in our part of the world more than ever before".

In harmony
All agreed Australia is at the cross roads of some powerful forces in the Asia-Pacific-Indian region and now carries considerable strategic weight. This is undoubtedly true. Australia is also faced with the daunting task of balancing these strategic forces while maximising the economic benefits.  

Until now, Tony Abbott as Prime Minister has been drawing Australia closer to the United States. He quickly agreed to an American request for renewed military action in Iraq, refused to join China's infrastructure bank and described Japan as our "best friend" in Asia.

After the events of the past week, don't be surprised if the Abbott Government starts spending more time with new "best friends".  Sensibly, the Prime Minister hasn't and won't publicly criticise the US, but all in the Coalition are privately seething at Obama's intervention and are openly dismissive of the United States for talking big on climate change but so far delivering little.  One thing is clear: none of this is child's play.

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