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Australia: Reserve Bank Board minutes in focus

Craig James
Friday, August 16, 2019

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A quieter week is in prospect in the coming week on the economic and financial calendar. Featured is the release of minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting, held on August 6.

On Tuesday

The weekly series of consumer confidence will be released by Roy Morgan and ANZ. The low value of the Aussie dollar and concern about how low interest rates may fall in Australia are issues for Aussie consumers. Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank releases minutes of the Board meeting held on August 6 – the meeting that decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.00 per cent. The new economic forecasts likely dominated discussion at the meeting. Looking out over the next 12-18 months, the Reserve Bank tips stronger economic growth, a modest lift in inflation and slightly lower jobless rate than applies currently

On Wednesday

On Wednesday, the Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business releases the Internet Vacancy Index – a measure of available jobs in the economy. In June the IVI fell by 0.6 per cent – the sixth consecutive decline. And the IVI is 6.7 per cent down on a year ago.

On Thursday

On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases detailed labour force estimates for July. Each month the ABS releases headline data like employment, unemployment and the participation rate. Then a week later the ABS releases for detailed estimates including demographics. For instance, it is possible to get the number of 60-65 year old Aussie in the job market. The Reserve Bank Governor recently highlighted the increasing participation of senior workers in the job market. Also on Thursday, Commonwealth Bank, in conjunction with Markit, releases August ‘flash’ (or early) estimates on activity in manufacturing and services sectors.

On Sunday

On Sunday August 25 Australian time at 2.25am (August 24 10.25am Wyoming, US), the Reserve Bank Governor is due to deliver a speech

Overseas: US housing activity in focus

Just like in Australia, the US economic and financial calendar is sparsely populated in the coming week.

On Tuesday

The week begins on Tuesday, with the releases of the regular Redbook weekly reading on US chain store sales.

On Wednesday

On Wednesday, the minutes of the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are issued. The minutes will provide some guide about the likelihood of future interest rate cuts. Also on Wednesday, weekly mortgage applications figures from the US Mortgage Bankers Association are due with the July figures on existing home sales. In June, home sales fell 1.7 per cent to an annual rate of 5.27 million. According to Trading Economics the median house price went up to an all-time high of $285,700 in June from $278,200 in May and $277,700 a year earlier. Year-on-year, existing home sales dropped 2.2 percent, the 16th straight annual decline in home sales.

On Thursday

On Thursday in the US, the weekly figures on jobless claims are issued, along with the Conference Board leading index and the Kansas Federal Reserve manufacturing gauge. The leading index fell 0.3 per cent in June – the first decline since December 2018. The Conference Board says growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the year. As such, the leading index supports the decision of the Federal Reserve to trim rates. Also on Thursday, August ‘flash’ (or early) survey estimates of purchasing managers are issued in Japan, the US, France, Germany and the Eurozone. The results provide insights into manufacturing and services sector activity. And beginning on Thursday (through to Saturday) is the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackon Hole Wyoming, US. This year the Economic Symposium is entitled “Challenges for Monetary Policy”. How apt.

On Friday

On Friday, US new home sales data is issued. Sales of new single-family homes rose 7 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 646,000 in June – the first rise in two months but still below forecasts. Economists tip another 6 per cent increase in sales in July. While interest rates are low and the job market is strong, analysts say that a shortage of affordable properties is constraining sales.

Financial markets

The reporting season – the time when listed companies report earnings results – moves into top gear in the coming week. While the data is subject to change, companies expected to report on include:

Monday

Altium; BlueScope Steel; GWA; NIB Health; and Lendlease.

Tuesday

BHP; SEEK; Estia Health; Oil Search; Senex Energy; Tassal; Sonic Healthcare; Charter Hall; Monadelphous; Kogan; Seven West Media.

Wednesday

A2 Milk; Crown Resorts; Nearmap; Dominos; Aventus; Iluka; Emeco; Data#3; McMillan Shakespeare; St Barbara; WorleyParsons; Wisetech; Stockland and; Brambles.

Thursday

Bingo; Origin Energy; Alumina; Perpetual; Zip; Medibank; Santos; Qube; Qantas; Flight Centre; ERM Power; Vocus Group; Southern Cross Media; Coca-Cola Amatil; Scentre Group; MyState; Downer EDI; Webjet; Coles Group; South32; Growthpoint Properties.

Friday

Costa Group; Pilbara Minerals; WPP; Mayne Pharma; Coventry; IRESS, Ardent Leisure; Goodman; BMX.

 

 

Published: Friday, August 16, 2019


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