Market maker or breaker
by Peter Switzer
While you were sleeping on Saturday morning, GE reported and though it beat expectations on earnings per share, the wise guys in the market think the company is still vulnerable to overall credit concerns in the USA.
There are bears and short-sellers telling us to worry about credit card defaults but this flies in the face of the reports from credit card outfits such as American Express that suggested card delinquencies were getting better. That’s great news and you have to hope it holds. By the way, JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon also noted that delinquencies were stabilising.
We will see the latest leading indicators for the USA and the most recent consumer sentiment number later this week.
By the way, a lot of the bad jobs news comes from the state of Michigan where Motown or Detroit resides, and the unemployment rate there is a whopping 15.2 per cent, which links to the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler. However in the slump of 1982, the unemployment rate went over 16 per cent!
Five states saw the rate fall while seven recorded no change and six set highs.
In other company reporting news, IBM beat estimates and raised outlooks while Bank of America did the first but put out a warning on its outlook. Citigroup did better than tipped, but not enough to excite traders. Google did not impress and Mattel saw profits rise by 82 per cent, despite Barbie putting in a shocker in terms of sales.
That’s why this week could be market maker or breaker. Around 30 per cent of the S&P 500 and 40 per cent of the Dow 30 play show and tell for the market. The big names include Coca-Cola, Morgan Stanley, Merck, Boeing, Caterpillar, McDonald's, Microsoft, and Apple.
"I'm going to have to extend to next Friday (24 July). We've got things cooking on the 21st and 22nd that I want to take a look at," Art Cashin, director of floor operations for UBS Financial Services on Wall Street, told CNBC.
Another important watch for me this week is the performance of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who fronts Congressional committees. He is expected to talk about the Fed’s exit strategy and he could be asked to explain why the Fed thinks US growth will go to 3.8 per cent to 4.6 per cent in 2011.
That’s big and could be a good reason for being in stocks by 2010 as a stock market reflects what’s expected in six to nine months time. In simple terms, we have fallen 50 per cent in the crash. We need to rise by 100 per cent to get back to those levels, but we have only come back 25 to 30 per cent. This comeback reflects the expected slow growth of next year and possibly before the market can start factoring in these big US growth rates of 2011. Watch this space!
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Published on: Monday, July 20, 2009blog comments powered by Disqus