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Have faith!

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by Peter Switzer

Wall Street showed no conviction to go higher overnight but it's definitely in no mood for a sell-off and that’s a great sign. And so was the Oracle profit, which jumped 38 per cent (adjusted for one-off items) beating expectations.

These are the beautiful words — “beating expectations” — and the more we see them the closer we will be to the next market take off.

Close to buying?

The summary of share trading was the Dow up 0.21 per cent to 10,594.83 and the S&P 500 down 0.04 per cent — let’s call it flat — to end at 1124.66.

The S&P 500 is still baulking at the 1130-level and has been locked between 1040 and 1230 since May. Share players are hanging out for a good reason to buy and I reckon we are getting close.

The conviction to buy needs an economic or political decision to jumpstart the rally, despite good signs and omens.

For example, the Oracle result is a good omen.

FedEx reported a doubling of profit and this is a company that reflects a lot about what the US economy is doing.

Data watch

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported manufacturing activity was lower in September. The index was at -0.7 in September but this was better than the -7.7 in August.

Also jobless claims fell by 3000 to 450,000, the lowest level in two months and this surprised experts. On top of that the Producer Price Index reading for August rose 0.4 per cent and raises doubts over the claims by doomsday drama queens that the US is heading for deflation.

Next, I like the survey for the week ending 15 September from the American Association of Individual Investors, which found some 51 per cent of respondents were bullish and this was seven per cent higher than the week before.

Santa Claus rally

Finally, my favourite quote from overnight. It comes from Ted Parrish, co-portfolio manager at Henssler Equity Fund.

“We’ve gone through a very challenging period this summer, which is seasonally a slow period, and we’re entering into a period that will be pretty good when it comes to retail sales and industrial production," he told CNBC. “And I think we break out from here and finish the year on a positive note.”

Another supporting my Santa Claus rally prediction — I love it!

For advice you can trust, contact Switzer Financial Services.

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Published on: Friday, September 17, 2010